Prediction markets like Polymarket have emerged as a significant force in shaping perceptions about the 2024 US presidential election. On Polymarket alone, $450 million has been wagered on predicting the election outcome, but there’s growing concern that online bets are not just predictive; they are influencing the outcome.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform launched in 2020 that allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrencies. The platform operates on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC stablecoins for betting transactions.
Users can trade shares based on event outcomes in areas like politics, sports, and pop culture; Prices are displayed as dollar values (e.g., a 70% probability shows as $0.70). Winning predictions resolve to $1 per share, while incorrect predictions become worthless
Election Odds
Currently, Polymarket indicates a 64% chance of victory for Trump, while Harris holds a 36% chance of winning.
As election analyst Carl Allen recently pointed out, these markets don't necessarily predict actual outcomes. The flood of money – much of it from outside the US, where American citizens are technically barred from participating – may be driven by factors beyond pure prediction.
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