Six weeks out, Trump's party is running from him, and he has started paying to keep it. Cook says the House is going, NBC has Democrats at their widest lead yet, and Florida's own county chairs say the party is bleeding.
Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday and now projects Democrats gain five to 15 seats in November. They need three. Cook rates 17 Republican-held seats as toss-ups against five Democratic ones, and Axios's Kate Santaliz reported that top Republicans expect "painful spending decisions" by early October.
Florida Republicans care. Politico's Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard interviewed nearly two dozen of the state's GOP politicians, operatives and consultants. One county chair told them, "We are hemorrhaging." Carlos Curbelo, who lost his Miami House seat in the 2018 wave, said, "It's definitely 2018 vibes out there." State Sen. Don Gaetz, Matt's father, said anybody on the ballot with a Democratic opponent "ought to be concerned." Trump carried the state by 13 points; Republicans hold a 1.55-million-voter registration edge and Byron Donalds has raised nearly $121 million to run for governor. The chairs say it is bleeding anyway.
The White House has read the same numbers. What it is now giving away to hold its majority sits below.
