Flávio Bolsonaro beat Lula on Sunday. He beat every poll too.
Brazil's electoral court finished the count early Monday: Flávio 47 percent, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 45, a gap of 2.2 million votes. Neither candidate cleared 50. They meet again on Sunday, October 25.
Nobody saw it coming, least of all the pollsters. Datafolha had Lula up 45 to 42 on Saturday night. Quaest had him up 46 to 45. AtlasIntel, which claims a one-point margin of error, had him up 45.3 to 42.2. Lula took 45.16. The pollsters nailed him. They missed his opponent by five points, and every one of them missed in the same direction.
Lula called the result "unexpected" and admitted he thought he would win outright. "The game is about to start. We are in extra time," he said. Flávio said Brazilians want change. Analysts told Reuters he had scooped up "protest votes" from people who wanted another candidate but wanted Lula gone more. The two also-rans who split 5.3 million votes between them will endorse nobody.
The right ran strong down the rest of the ballot. Flávio's Liberal Party is set to be the largest in the lower house. His stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, won a Senate seat in the capital, her first election. His brother won one in Santa Catarina. Their father, Jair Bolsonaro, is serving 27 years for plotting a coup after he lost to Lula in 2022, and Flávio has promised to seek him an amnesty.
So where did Flávio find two million votes the pollsters never saw, and what is on the jailed banker's phone?
