Senate Democrats need four seats. The map now offers them seven.
The Cook Political Report moved Kansas to a toss-up on Tuesday, moved North Carolina to Likely Democrat, and set the Democratic pickup range at "two to six seats," which it says sits "squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net for a majority." Inside Elections projects two to four. Republicans hold the chamber 53-47.
Ranked most likely first:
North Carolina. Roy Cooper, the former governor, led Michael Whatley, the former Republican Party chairman, 49-38 in Elon University's late-August poll. Cook rates the seat Likely Democrat; Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections rate it Leans Democrat. Thom Tillis is retiring. This is the one seat Democrats can nearly bank.
Maine. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson debated for the first time Tuesday night. CNN's September poll had Jackson up 48-45; the Times/Siena poll two weeks later had Collins up 49-46. Collins spent the debate denying a ProPublica report that the FBI planned a 2024 probe of a $150,000 donation from Martin Kao, through a shell company, to a super PAC backing her in 2019, a probe the Trump administration shut down in 2025. She called the allegation "completely false," and the Times reported FBI leaders did not find Kao's claims credible. They debate again Thursday.
Texas. James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51-45 in the New York Times/Siena poll, Forbes reported, and 51-49 at Fox News. Cook and Sabato call it a toss-up; Inside Elections still tilts it Republican. Paxton's own voice is the Republican problem here.
Which three more seats get Democrats to four?
