Narativ with Zev Shalev

Narativ with Zev Shalev

The Narativ

NEW ANALYSIS: Lula told Trump to stay out — that's how he won

Lula named the intervention, denied visas to two State Department officials and took 51.8%. Flávio Bolsonaro wants the court to annul it.

Zev Shalev's avatar
Zev Shalev
Oct 26, 2026
∙ Paid
Paulo Pinto/Agência Brasil

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Lula told Trump to stay out of Brazil's election. Then he won it.

In July 2025 Trump put 50% tariffs on Brazil, partly over Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial, and Marco Rubio restricted the visa of the judge running it. In May this year Trump, Rubio and JD Vance hosted Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House, and Trump called him "a smart young man." Days later the State Department named two Brazilian gangs terrorist organizations, and Flávio claimed the credit. In July Washington stacked 25% more tariffs on top. Before the first round the State Department suspended consular services across Brazil over security concerns it never described. Trump never formally endorsed Flávio. He never had to.

Lula said it out loud. In June he told Trump not to meddle. In late July Brazil denied visas to two State Department officials, accusing them of trying to meddle in the vote. Washington revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, soon after. On Sept. 22 Lula said he had told Trump "it is very important that the U.S. do not interfere" and that he was "very worried about Marco Rubio." The White House called that "nonsense."

Flávio beat him in the first round on Oct. 4. Lula posted his first selfie video to TikTok three days later and brought in Ana Elisa Santos Silva, a 21-year-old influencer just elected Brazil's youngest federal deputy, to put him on ground the Brazilian right usually owns. On Sunday Brazil answered. Lula took 51.8%, nearly 4.4 million votes clear: "This country will not accept being anyone's backyard."

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