NEW ANALYSIS: Eisenkot Will Likely Be PM With 67 Knesset Seats; Ushering Israeli Unity Similar To Rabin

Eisenkot can't govern without the Arab lists and doesn't need them at the table, so the real choices are a minority government they back from outside, the way Rabin's was, or Netanyahu stepping aside.

Yonatan Sindel/Pool Photo via AP

Netanyahu has 53 seats and needs 61. Eisenkot has 48. The Arab lists have 19. As we’ve reported since election night, the only majority anyone can build is Eisenkot plus the Arab lists: 67. This remains our analysis even as Bibi Netanyahu claims foreign interference should annul those 19 seats.

Justice Noam Sohlberg, who runs the elections committee, told the Shin Bet to look into "improper influence on the elections through foreign funding provided by external actors operating against Israeli interests." He named no country, said he "cannot attest to the substance of these suspicions," and wants an answer within a week. The accusation is Likud's: Qatari money paid for the Arab turnout.

The committee's own acting director, Dean Livne, said there was no basis for claims of widespread fraud. The police said they had "no investigative or intelligence evidence" that the election was stolen. Police have held seven people in a vote-buying case tied to Ra'am, found no significant evidence and expect to close it, ynet reported.

Three roads are left, and the likeliest one could usher in a government that returns Israel to the hope that existed under assassinate prime minister Yitzhak Rabin. Here are the three likeliest roads ranked in order.

Road one: a minority government the Arab lists vote for without sitting in it. That is how Rabin governed after 1992: Labor and Meretz had 56, five Arab-party members backed him from outside, never at the table, and Oslo passed on their votes. Eisenkot’s right-wing partners will not sit with the Arab lists, and he does not need them to. The Joint List said Wednesday it would support a government from outside, without ministries: Eisenkot governs with 48 and the 19 behind him. If he takes Rabin’s road, Israel gets back the one kind of government that ever reached for peace.

Road two: Netanyahu pulls eight across. The only real offer went the other way: United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox party with seven seats, will offer Eisenkot the premiership in exchange for a draft-exemption law. That is 55, six short. If the party gave Bibi the same offer, he could deliver a government of 61 seats. You can mix and match a number if smaller parties to build a coalition on either side but its complicated and more likely for Eisenkot that Bibi.

Road three: a unity government. Netanyahu and Eisenkot together would have 101 seats, and it works only if Netanyahu steps aside. President Isaac Herzog said Wednesday that “we must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections.” He gets the results next Wednesday and must hand someone the mandate by Nov. 11.

The Telegraph reported Thursday, from unnamed Iranian officials, that Iran tried to interfere in Israel’s vote and plans to do the same in the U.S. midterms; one newspaper, and Sohlberg’s letter names no country.

The fraud claims cut the other way too, Polymarket is investigating suspicious trades on its Israel markets after the odds swung to Netanyahu overnight, while the channels were still revising their exit polls toward him, Bloomberg reported; Quartz puts the pool at $70 million. If the bets moved before the count did, somebody knew which way the count would go. That is what a rig looks like.

Netanyahu cannot get to 61 while those 19 seats count, so everything since Tuesday night has been about making them not count: a complaint with no evidence, a Shin Bet referral, petitions for revotes, a Likud demand that “no Zionist party” deal with Ra’am. The state’s own officials are not playing along. The majority exists. The fight is over whether Israel lets it govern.

Sohlberg’s week runs out as Herzog’s consultations begin, and that is the window. If the Shin Bet comes back with nothing, Eisenkot calls the Joint List and governs on their votes from outside, before the ultra-Orthodox change their minds. If it comes back with something, Netanyahu gets another election, and the campaign is already written.

If Bibi clings to power, it will be fleeting. A vast majority of Israelis voted to get him out of power. They are tired of the war and bloodshed, they are exhausted by the lies and hatred. They - Jews and Arabs alike - are ready for the hope and optimism an Eisenkot government could deliver.