Sergey Lavrov landed in Atlanta on Friday morning for the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting. A day earlier Russia flew a jet drone into the platform at Dnipro’s main railway station as a train boarded and killed at least 14 people; CNN counted 15.
Those two facts opened Narativ Live, and by the end of it Sean Wiswesser and Olga Lautman, a Russia analyst, had said it plainly. “This is not America isolationist policy,” Lautman said. “This is America siding with Russia.” Zev Shalev went a step further: this is no longer betrayal, it is Trump aiding and abetting Russia.
Wiswesser ran a CIA station, and put the first number on it: Patriot interceptor deliveries to Ukraine are down to one quarter of January’s rate, by his count, “and it’s costing lives.” Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth had neither approved nor rejected the transfers Europe already paid for, the Washington Post reported Oct. 19; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked him Monday to “unblock the deliveries.”
Starshield, the military Starlink, was speed-capped in mid-October with no notice: a terminal moving faster than 100 mph loses its link. Lautman blamed the Pentagon, not Elon Musk, and Musk agrees: the limits, he said Oct. 24, are “decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.” Hegseth denies any directive. Whoever’s hand is on the switch, the switch does the same thing.
Trump signed Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sanctions law on Sept. 18 and waived every provision of it on Oct. 16, in an order with no end date that never uses the word Ukraine. On Oct. 9 the Treasury licensed Russian diesel; the first tanker, the Agioi Fanendes, was due in New Jersey on Nov. 7 and now sits “for orders,” after Gov. Mikie Sherrill called the deal illegal on Thursday and said she is looking for ways to stop it.
“Congress needs to take action,” Wiswesser said. “Why aren’t they acting to enforce the law?” Lautman counted one Republican who has acted, Sen. Thom Tillis, the only one to sign the Oct. 24 letter to banks and ports. Wiswesser’s book, Tradecraft, Tactics, and Dirty Tricks: Russian Intelligence and Putin’s Secret War (Naval Institute Press), is out now and, he said, topped Audible’s espionage releases last month; he told the audience the proudest boast today should be “I am a Ukrainian.”
On Friday Reuters reported that Pentagon officials privately urged Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to tone down their warnings about Russia; the Pentagon’s policy chief advised one Baltic official against “poking” Moscow, and Estonia says nothing of the kind came through official channels. Lautman’s version: the Pentagon told allies to shut up and stop poking Russia. In the same weeks drones hit at least three merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania and more than 20 sailors were lost; Romania blamed Russia for one, the Khoryv, sunk off Constanța on Oct. 23. “This is war,” Lautman said. “You hit ships with drones and you sink the ships.”
Russia bombed a train station, and Romania says a Russian drone sank a merchant ship in NATO waters, in the same two weeks Washington licensed its diesel, waived its sanctions and asked the neighbors to keep quiet. Narativ reported on Oct. 20 that Russia is being paid before the talks. This week the payment went from money to cover.
A House that flips on Tuesday makes any Trump-Putin deal hard to get through Congress; as Shalev put it, voters can change the outcome of this war by how they vote. The Kremlin wants its Abu Dhabi round of talks after Nov. 4, and Nov. 3 sets the price. The Agioi Fanendes, idling with no port confirmed, will show which way the shipowners bet first.
Thank you Dani Smart, Amy Gabrielle, Caro Henry, John Mahoney, Lalisa, and many others for tuning into my live video with Olga Lautman and Sean Wiswesser! Join me for my next live video in the app.
