🚨 EUROPE HAS SIX WEEKS OF JET FUEL — ISRAEL AND LEBANON ANNOUNCE 10-DAY CEASEFIRE; HEGSETH: "RELOADING"

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👀 STORIES TO WATCH

🚨 US PREPARING FOR NEW COMBAT IN IRAN

The head of the International Energy Agency told the AP this morning in Paris that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left” — and if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by end of May, flights will begin canceling and economies across the developing world will slide from inflation into recession. More than 110 oil-laden tankers and 15 LNG carriers are stranded in the Persian Gulf right now, unable to move, and war damage to 80 key energy facilities means that even with a deal signed tomorrow, it could take up to two years to restore pre-war energy production. At the Pentagon this morning, Hegseth delivered a different message entirely: the US is “reloading with more power than ever before,” the blockade is “the polite way this can go,” and if Iran chooses poorly it will face “bombs dropping on infrastructure, power, and energy.” Against that backdrop, Israel and Lebanon announced a 10-day ceasefire today — with Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaking directly for the first time in 34 years, Rubio on the call — five days before the US-Iran ceasefire expires on April 21.

💰 WALL STREET’S GAS HIGH

Trump told Fox Business he will fire Jerome Powell if he doesn’t leave the Fed when his chairmanship expires May 15 — a legally unprecedented move that would trigger a constitutional crisis over central bank independence. The S&P 500 hit a record high this week, pricing in a peace deal. The average American is paying $4.14 for gas, inflation jumped to 3.3% in March — the sharpest monthly rise since the Covid shock of 2022 — and real wages fell 0.6%. Wall Street and Main Street are living in different countries, and Trump wants to fire the one person standing between him and the printing press.

✝️ POPE LEO “A HANDFUL OF TYRANTS”

At a peace gathering in Bamenda today, Pope Leo XIV said the world is “being ravaged by a handful of tyrants” spending billions on killing while billions of people cannot access food, health care, or education. “Woe to those who manipulate religion in the name of God.” Trump, Vance, and Mike Johnson have all now publicly attacked him — the first American pope in history.

📊 TRUMP BASE IS FRAYING

WaPo’s Karen Tumulty today: Trump is testing the loyalty of his Christian base and it is cracking. Conservative Catholic bishops are rebuking him publicly. Evangelical leaders who stayed silent through two terms are beginning to speak. Attacking the first American pope — a figure Catholics feel as their own — may be the miscalculation that costs him the coalition he cannot win without.

🏛️ BUT GOP BLOCKS WAR POWERS

The vote failed 47-52, largely along party lines. It was the fourth time this year. But the NYT notes Republican senators are “anxious for the conflict to end” and “may not defer to the executive branch indefinitely.” The blockade, the ceasefire deadline, and the IEA’s six-week warning are all converging on the same week. The math is changing.

🎯 THE PATTERN

Do not fall for the drumbeat. What Trump is doing right now — the manufactured tension, the Pope fight, the economic anxiety, the ceasefire-that-might-not-hold — is a deliberate strategy. Autocrats thrive on fear. They use it to commandeer elections, consolidate support, maximize profits for themselves and their allies, and make it impossible for ordinary people to find common ground with each other. He does this every election season - attempting to hold his base together - or else cosmic damnation. What’s really happening is a record stretch of losing elections, Cook Report shifts four senate races, Catholics are fraying, and a 36-year-old teacher from Texas just raised $27 million. It’s not you, it’s Trump popularity falling off a cliff. He is trying to take the rest of us with him. There’s a simple answer to that. Just say no and vote in November

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