Hope Springs Eternal But Stormy Weather Brings Possible May Flowers

Did Donald Trump desire to hide his sexual encounter from his wife or voters? That's the central question in week 4 of the Hush Money Trial.

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HOPE HICKS AND THE MELANIA DEFENSE

Neither Hope Hicks nor Stormy Daniels are going to win a Profile in Courage Award. These individuals are not doing this for the right reasons by any stretch of the imagination. However, as it turns out, the two women could determine America's fate, specifically if our democracy is to survive. I say this because the only event we know of between now and November that can impact the election results is the Hush Money Trial of Donald J. Trump.

Nationally, it's a neck-and-neck horse race, but Trump leads in the all-important swing states. And in those swing states, most independent voters say that if Trump is found guilty, it will influence their votes in favor of Biden and deter voting for Donald Trump.

Whether you believe Hope Hicks or Stormy Daniels could make the world of a difference. If the jury believes Hope Hicks - whose testimony on the stand included two mentions supportive of the so-called “Melania defense” - then the jury is more inclined to return a not guilty verdict or a hung jury. If the jury believes Stormy Daniels, they are more likely to return a guilty verdict.

Hope Hicks the loyal communications director to Donald Trump introduced the Melania defense into her testimony:

If the pollsters are correct, a guilty verdict could be a boon for Joe Biden and a drag on Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidency. Hopefully, prosecutors know the tenuous ground they (and the Republic) stand. So, we can expect the following week in the trial to be all about "intent," with Michael Cohen's testimony on Monday expected to be decisive.

Prosecutors have a strong case based on documents that prove a fraudulent business transaction took place when Michael Cohen paid Stormy Daniels $130,000 to keep quiet about her sexual encounter with Donald Trump. However, proving this fraudulent deal is only part of the burden of proof. The jury must also determine whether the transaction was done in furtherance of a crime - in this case, an illegal "in-kind" donation to a political campaign. Specifically, to Donald Trump's election campaign.

What drove Donald Trump to make this “hush money” deal? Was it the desire to hide the sexual encounter from his wife or voters?

So far, Donald Trump’s most likely defense is the one that argues the hush money transaction was not about silencing Stormy Daniels for the election campaign but for protecting Melania from hearing about the affair.