The Eerie Similarities
The parallels between 2024 and 2016 are striking and impossible to ignore:
Trump as the Candidate: Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, and that entails unprecedented support from Russia.
Female Democratic Nominee: Like Hillary Clinton in 2016, Kamala Harris faces unique challenges as a woman running for the highest office.
Tight Polls in Battleground States: We're seeing razor-thin margins in key states, reminiscent of the nail-biting finish in 2016.
Disinformation Campaigns: As I noted in yesterday's show, we're facing an "onslaught of disinformation" that eerily mirrors the 2016 landscape.
Green Shoots in the Data
I asked Carl Allen, author of "The Polls Weren't Wrong," how he viewed the two elections on last night’s show. Allen says his 2024 forecast is not as close as other analysts’, putting Kamala Harris in a far more advantageous polling position than Hillary Clinton was in 2016.
Here are some of the "green shoots" that Carl sees in the data.
Closer to 50%: A…
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