Our latest analysis projects Kamala Harris as the probable winner of the 2024 election, with a likely path to 292 electoral votes. Election expert Carl Allen's independent forecast supports this projection, rating Harris as the more likely winner. His models even show a possible more decisive outcome, in which Democrats could sweep all swing states.
Probable Path to Victory:
The most likely scenario shows Harris securing traditional blue-wall states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) while adding North Carolina, creating multiple viable paths to victory even if she loses one blue-wall state. This probable path puts Harris at 292 electoral votes compared to Trums’s forecast, showing potential for an even stronger Democratic performance.
Michigan
Michigan appears the most volatile of the blue wall states, with both campaigns wrestling over significant voter shifts. Despite Republicans registering more new voters than expected and potential losses of 50,000-150,000 traditionally Democrati…
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