No, That Wasn't a Cocaine Bag: My Rule of Thumb for Disinformation

When evaluating wild claims, the most likely story is usually the true one

European leaders traveling to Ukraine on a train. Emmanuel Macron reaches for a white object on the table and removes it. Within hours, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova is amplifying social media claims that the French president was handling a "cocaine bag" during the diplomatic mission.

The object? A tissue. For blowing his nose.

This absurd incident perfectly illustrates my rule of thumb for dealing with disinformation: when evaluating competing narratives, the most straightforward explanation is almost always the correct one. The simpler the story, the more likely it's true.

The Simplicity Test

In an era of deepfakes and conspiracy theories, we've overcomplicated our approach to truth. My rule strips it back to basics: start with common sense. What's more probable—European leaders doing cocaine during high-stakes diplomacy, or someone blowing their nose on a train?

The disinformation industrial complex thrives on our willingness to entertain extraordinary claims. They count on us thinking, "Well, I suppose it's possible..." No. Stop there. Apply the simplicity test first.

How the Rule Works

When I encounter suspicious claims, I ask three questions:

1. What's the most mundane explanation? (Someone used a tissue)

2. Who benefits from the dramatic version? (Russia undermining Western unity)

3. Does the simple version fit all known facts? (Yes, people blow their noses)

If the simple explanation covers everything without requiring elaborate theories, believe it. The burden of proof belongs with those suggesting something extraordinary happened, not with those noting ordinary human behavior.

Consider The Source

The Macron cocaine story provides another textbook example of how American influencers manufacture fake evidence to support Kremlin narratives—a pattern we've seen repeated for years.

Alex Jones, who has appeared on Russian state TV and consistently amplified Moscow's talking points, didn't just share the false cocaine claim. He posted doctored images claiming to show "a bag of Blow" on the train table. A side-by-side comparison reveals his deception: the original footage clearly shows crumpled tissues and crystal glasses, not drug paraphernalia.

This isn't new—it's how the established disinformation pipeline works. Russian operatives plant false narratives, American bad actors create fake "evidence" to support them, then the stories circulate as if based on legitimate investigation. Jones wasn't just amplifying disinformation—he was manufacturing it, just like he's done countless times before.

The Russian Playbook Decoded

Moscow's disinformation strategy exploits our sophistication against us. They know educated people pride themselves on considering multiple perspectives, thinking critically, remaining open to alternative explanations. So they offer alternative explanations—just outrageous enough to seem possible.

The cocaine claim follows this pattern perfectly:

• Real footage (adds credibility)

• Ambiguous visual (allows interpretation)

• Scandalous implication (drives engagement)

• Official amplification (provides authority)

But notice what's missing: any actual evidence beyond speculation. My rule cuts through this complexity: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. A blurry white object on a table isn't extraordinary evidence.

Why This Pattern Matters

Alex Jones has spent years promoting Kremlin narratives—from his appearances on RT to denying Russian election interference to supporting Putin's talking points about Ukraine. His cocaine fabrication fits this well-established pattern.

This is how disinformation laundering works: foreign intelligence plants the seed, American influencers tend the garden, and mainstream social media harvests the result. By the time false narratives reach general audiences, they're wrapped in American flags and presented as patriotic truth-telling.

The tissue incident isn't unique—it's just the latest example of how this system operates in real-time. We've seen the same playbook with Hillary's emails, Hunter Biden's laptop, and countless other stories where American propagandists add fake evidence to foreign-originated narratives.

The American Amplification Problem

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot warned about "Russian propaganda, relayed by the American far-right." This is where my rule becomes crucial for American citizens. Russian disinformation depends on American amplification to spread domestically.

Before sharing that sensational claim, apply the simplicity test. Is this the most likely explanation? Who benefits if you share it? Are you amplifying foreign propaganda operations? You might be doing Vladimir Putin's work without realizing it.

Fighting Back with Common Sense

Macron's response was perfect: "This is a tissue. For blowing your nose." No elaborate defense, no dignifying the absurd claim with detailed rebuttals. Just stating the obvious.

This is how democracies should respond to disinformation—not by engaging every fabricated scandal but by trusting citizens' basic intelligence. Sometimes the most sophisticated response is the simplest one.

The Bigger Pattern

The tissue/cocaine story reveals something deeper: how information warfare targets democratic processes. The goal isn't convincing people European leaders are drug users—it's making citizens doubt their ability to distinguish truth from fiction.

Once people lose faith in their own judgment, they become vulnerable to anyone promising simple answers. That's how democracies die: not from foreign invasion but from citizens abandoning their confidence in basic reasoning.

Practical Application

Next time you encounter a viral claim that seems designed to outrage:

1. Stop before sharing

2. Apply the simplicity test

3. Ask who benefits from this narrative

4. Check if the "evidence" actually supports the claim

5. Trust common sense over sensationalism

6. Consider the Source

Most disinformation fails the simplicity test. Trust that instinct.

The Jones Test

When evaluating viral political content, ask yourself: Could this have come from Alex Jones? If the answer is yes, proceed with extreme caution. Jones has spent years weaponizing false narratives for foreign adversaries. His fingerprints on a story should trigger immediate suspicion.

The tissue incident shows how quickly he transforms foreign disinformation into domestic fake news. His doctored images weren't just wrong—they were deliberately fabricated to deceive Americans. This isn't free speech; it's information warfare.

Bottom Line

Macron is not a cokehead and Alex Jones

is still a Russian propagandist.