Oh Canada!
There's much more to Trump's Canada obsession than fentanyl and American cheddar, but why would the US actually invade its Northern neighbor?
Eye on the Prize
I've been sounding the alarm since 2019. Russia, China, and the United States under Trump have their eyes on the geopolitical prize of the century—control of the Arctic—and a democratic Canada stands in their way.
Trump's antagonism towards Canada isn't about undocumented immigrants, fentanyl, or dairy prices. It's about capitalizing on the future potential of the Arctic—a region rich in resources and strategic shipping routes that climate change is rapidly opening up.
A View From Above
We tend to think of the North Pole as a frozen ice cap or Santa's home, but it is rapidly becoming the center of global trade. Look at the world from above, and you'll see only two superpowers positioned to dominate this emerging frontier: Russia and Canada - and a united Europe.
Yes, Canada. Despite being overshadowed by its southern neighbor, Canada possesses the world's longest Arctic coastline. This makes it not just another country—it's the gateway to North America's Arctic frontier.
The Northwest Passage could slash shipping times between Asia and Europe by up to 20 days. This isn't just about convenience—it represents hundreds of billions in annual shipping costs. Whoever controls these waters controls the future of global commerce.
Russia’s Arctic Military Build-up
While Canada's Arctic infrastructure remains relatively undeveloped, Russia has been preparing for decades. They've reactivated and constructed more than 40 military bases in the Arctic since 2014. These installations mirror Soviet-era positioning but now feature advanced missile systems and surveillance capabilities. Putin himself declared in 2021 that Russia's future lies in Arctic development.
China and Russia’s Alliance
China, despite having zero Arctic territory, declared itself a "Near-Arctic State" in 2018 and formalized a strategic partnership with Russia in 2019. They've invested billions in Canadian mining operations and infrastructure projects concentrated in the north. When questioned about these investments at the Arctic Council, Chinese representatives spoke of "global governance" rather than respecting national sovereignty. Their investments specifically target rare earth minerals essential for technology manufacturing.
More troubling is how these separate threads connect through formal agreements and actions. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for a New Era between China and Russia, established in 2019, includes mutual support on "core interests" including territorial claims. Their road map for Military Cooperation (2021-2025) involves joint Arctic exercises and intelligence sharing. As recently as May 2024, Xi and Putin reaffirmed this partnership with explicit mentions of Arctic development.
Trump’s Policies Betray Him
Meanwhile, Chinese infrastructure funding has increased in regions where Russian military activity intensified. Trump's withdrawal of Arctic environmental protections aligned perfectly with Russian and Chinese extraction interests. These aren't coincidental alignments—they're documented developments flowing from strategic partnerships.
Trump's foreign policy appears drawn from South Park's Blame Canada episode, but don't let the gaslighting fool you - it is rooted in a dangerous new alliance between Russia, China, and the U.S. I say dangerous because it portends the end of human rights and democracy.
In Ukraine, we're witnessing the consequences of shifting U.S. policy. Trump has halted military aid and intelligence sharing, directly weakening Ukraine's defensive capabilities against Russian forces. His administration's separate discussions with Russia have undermined Ukraine's negotiating position, creating diplomatic leverage for Putin. When Trump publicly states it's "easier to deal with Russia than Ukraine," he signals where U.S. priorities now lie.
Turning Back on Our Allies
In his Ukraine policy we can see Trump's allegiance to Russia, but so far the Trump administration claims to have an anti-China stance. Yet in his handling of TikTok and his glowing portrayals of Chairman Xi, you can see shoots of what will be a full-blown axis of Russia-China and the US.
What happens if Ukraine falls? Beyond the human tragedy, it creates a dangerous precedent for territorial annexation and releases Russian military resources to focus northward. Russian forces would gain sophisticated Western equipment and weaponry remaining in Ukraine, significantly enhancing their military capabilities. More importantly, it removes the primary distraction from Putin's Arctic expansion plans while demonstrating to China and the U.S. that territorial aggression works when coordinated properly.
Trump has called Trudeau "the governor of the Great State of Canada" and publicly questioned the legitimacy of the 1908 border treaty. His administration previously declared Canadian claims to the Northwest Passage "illegitimate" in 2019. The pattern continues with recent threats to tear up water-sharing agreements and remove Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence alliance—all systematic pressure points.
Withdrawing Troops from Europe
And Trump says he will withdraw all 35,000 troops from Europe without saying exactly where they will go, a reality that should concern Canada's military planners.
Trump's attempts to intimidate Trudeau with tariffs and name-calling have actually strengthened Canadian resolve. Recent polling shows 68% of Canadians now view Arctic sovereignty as a critical issue, up from 42% in 2019. Trudeau's statements about "completely bogus" tariff justifications show a growing recognition of the true agenda.
Today Canada selects a new Prime Minister facing extraordinary pressures: economic warfare from the south, military posturing from the east, and economic infiltration from the west. An election now would create dangerous instability at exactly the wrong moment.
A Military Invasion?
Is a U.S. military invasion of Canada actually possible? The question would have seemed absurd five years ago. But as Trump tears up longstanding alliances, questions border treaties, and calls Canada's leader a "governor," we must consider the unthinkable. The path may not be a conventional invasion, but rather a staged "intervention" justified by manufactured security concerns—following the same playbook refined in Ukraine.
The democratic world must take Trump's threat at face value. A transatlantic partnership between Canada, European nations, the remainder of AUKUS and Ukraine—now a formidable arms producer in its own right—is essential.
Canada must swiftly learn from Ukraine's experience and initiate the development of a domestic weapons industry. Deploying its expertise in AI and quantum computing can lead to the creation of novel home front defense capabilities. Additionally, constructing a disinformation strategy aimed at countering Russia's capabilities should get underway today.
All of this could potentially benefit a Canadian economy severely affected by tariffs. Why undertake these measures? Because they are the only path to securing human rights, democracy, and equality as fundamental values for the world.
When I began reporting on the 'Enemies of Democracy' and the Arctic in 2019, it completely reframed for me why Russia had maintained such a formidable resolve in attacking the US. Some viewed my reporting as being alarmist and unfounded, but time has proven otherwise. This is not a good time to be in denial about what may come. We can hope that it doesn’t happen, but we should be prepared for it.
The Three Dictators
These powers—operating through technology, economic leverage, and military might—represent an existential challenge to democratic values. But as Ukraine has shown the world, a bold determination, emerging technologies, and good friendships built on strong shared values can prove an effective counterweight to oppressive dictatorships.
The choice before us is clear: an Arctic governed by democratic principles and nations like Canada, a united Europe, and a free USA answerable to their people, or controlled by three dictators Xi, Putin, and Trump.
Follow our ongoing investigation at Narativ.