Why are Joe Biden's polling numbers so weak?

It's not just polls, politics and policy.

The polling fairies have not been kind to President Joe Biden on his 81st birthday. The new NBC News poll sees Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 46%-44% in a direct benchmark.

The Morning Consult monthly “2024 Election Watch” polls Americans on their presidential choice and issues that matter to them.

“Trump is gaining ground among key voter segments including Black, Hispanic, and young Americans: Throughout 2023, Donald Trump has made up ground with President Joe Biden in our head-to-head tracking by improving his margins among independents, the youngest voters, and Black and Hispanic Americans.”

Democrats are consoling themselves, saying the polls aren’t predictive, and they remind us that Joe Biden wasn’t expected to win in 2020 either. But the Morning Consult poll also reveals some groups are watching specific issues.

Black Americans are more likely than the broader electorate to view the Jan. 6 Capitol attack as “very important” when considering their vote next year. LGBTQ+ rights are also more important to this group, as well as to Hispanic voters and 18- to 34-year-olds.

And most of these voters say they’re not hearing much about the issues uniquely important to them. Instead, they overwhelmingly hear about the economy and international conflicts, such as the wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas. As for those who are hearing about the issues they primarily care about, the information reaching them is more likely to be negative than positive.

And therein lies the problem…