Paxton Blames Trump for a Poll Drop Pollsters Can't Find

Emerson had Paxton up 47–46 before the Dallas convention and down 46–47 after it, inside the margin of error; the drop lives on his tape, and his campaign says its own poll has him up three.

Shelby Tauber for The New York Times

Ken Paxton told about a dozen donors and lobbyists at a private Washington fundraiser last week that Donald Trump's Dallas convention cost Republicans votes. Someone in the room asked whether Trump was "a little bit of a drag." The Texas attorney general, who won the Republican Senate nomination on Trump's endorsement, answered: "So, to be honest with you, the numbers – when we did the convention – it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good."

Someone opposed to his campaign recorded him and gave the audio to The New York Times, which published it early Wednesday and confirmed through multiple people that Paxton was in the room.

Paxton's campaign did not dispute the words. His senior adviser called the story "manipulated nonsense" and said Paxton "looks forward to closing strong alongside President Trump." The campaign says its own poll, taken about two weeks after the convention, has Paxton ahead 48 to 45. That is the Republican midterm in one afternoon: trash Trump to the donors, praise him for the cameras.

Trump, with Speaker Mike Johnson beside him outside the White House on Tuesday, announced a 32-day campaign tour and waved off talk of Republicans keeping their distance. "They all want me to go campaign," he said.

Paxton says the convention dropped his numbers. The public pollsters went looking for the drop, and here is what they found.