Very well analysed, Zev. As a trap, it is extraordinarily elegant. It's true that China plays the long game. Russia and China are not always totally lined up. Yet they both aim to grow their opportunities, so to speak. And India under Modi is looking for options. Canada will stay out when the USA goes into Iran. It is sad. Persian culture, Iranian people, the very lands will suffer.
"It is sad: Persian culture, Iranian prople, and the very lands will suffer." My empathy here is for all that will be destroyed in Iran, like its ancient Persian and more recent Shia cultural traditions. Iran is a country wherein the British, Russian, and American governments have conspired and interfered to obtain oil wealth for over a century and a half. It is not one of the Sunni Muslim lands. It is Shia. The dominant Sunni powers, e.g. Saudi Arabian Wahhabis, will descend like vultures, too, to try to eliminate Iran's Shia culture. So much militant destruction. So little tolerance.
I think he meant it is sad the USA may actually go into Iran. As Netanyehu is learning, alas at great cost to others, leaders can no longer use warfare as a way to distract the citizenry from failed domestic policy.
Trump and his admin have wrought disaster in the USA. It will be a hard, long and painful journey back to any kind of humane, functioning democracy. They cannot afford a war for many reasons, not least their kneecapped economy...
I served as an army officer in the debacle known as the American war in Vietnam. Unwinnable at so many levels with US ego being the overriding factor. I have been on the ground many times in Lao and Vietnam since the war. So many actions by the US that are morally questionable.
I have also been on the ground in Iran. Given that the US has not won a war in my life time and has learnt absolutely nothing at each outing, there is no doubt in my experience that they will get flogged again.
The US leadership does not have the brains, ability or war machinery that can defeat Iran in Iran. So, yet again they will struggle to even come second.
The U.S. isn’t required to “win” any war….just keep stuffing the pockets of the death merchants and the bankers. I fear we just can’t seem to understand all along who the enemy truly is….it sure isn’t Iran or any other PNAC failed state or European vassal . The enemy all along resides within.
Thank you so much for the information. I know I can count on you to bring what others fail to bring to us and show us the truth. And to open our eyes to what is really happening, as frightening as it may be.
Silly and patronising article. As if the people and governments of the Middle East and Asia lacked autonomy, functioning only as pawns in a Kremlin and Beijing game. The world is much more dynamic and complex than this cookie cutter hypothesis.
Trump dropped the 2015 agreement that stopped Iran from even producing nuclear weapons. Now, unsure just how much uranium Iran has in stock, itself a matter forced into being for effectively cancelling the strict auditing process put in place by that same agreement, Netanyahu and Trump feel forced to strike.
This is pure fear, pure negligence, a preemptive attack designed to circumvent a perceived possible threat at sometime in the distant future, and an attack made by paranoid idiots, each struck by unresolved as untreated trauma.
Don’t tell me this is a trap set by China and Russia – alone that sounds idiotic. This is a trap, better known as an own goal, set by America itself – the most egoistic, ambitious, unaware and so dangerous country in the world.
While I can hope that Iran is willing to talk before targeting the US, that may be naive. My other hope is that the US does not try to put boots on the ground in Iran. Iran not only has the most advanced military in the region outside of Israel but is geographically gigantic: mountainous, inhospitable and lacking in infrastructure.
There is a considerable possibility that Iran will seek opportunities to bring the war to American soil here in the West. This would undoubtedly result in harsh countermeasures with great loss of life in Iran but the Islamic leadership may feel they have no choice. If they “only” attack US military outposts in the Middle East (which are startlingly numerous), that might be enough for the Ayatollah to avoid seeming completely cowed while seeking to negotiate through third parties. One can only wonder if Israel believes that the Iranian threat — which goes well beyond the possibility of nuclear weapons — has been sufficiently degraded. Its maximum war approach in Gaza and, increasingly, the West Bank, is worrying in this regard.
It’s not a bad analysis but it doesn’t account for a few important details : South Korea was an absolute success for American military and nation-building efforts. So were Japan and Western Europe and later Eastern Europe. So the problem is limited to basically Muslim countries.
Secondly, Putin absolutely isn’t ambiguous about extermination of entire command chain of their main ally that were cultivated for 3 decades of heavy investment. We’re watching a civil war inside MAGA and inside the larouchian Democrat wing precisely along the fracture line of loyalty to Moscow narratives : all diet-Nazis are rebelling against Donold who wants to be a real boy for a little bit; while the spineless sycophants who bent along party lines are just fine with it.
Thirdly, you’re overestimating. Yes, KGB had exceptionally patient strategies back in the day. But for last four decades, nepotis and corruption drove absolute majority of Russian recruitment to lucrative executive officer positions. Their failures in Ukraine are abysmal. Their successes undermining American democracy with willing collaborators on the inside are remarkable but aren’t due to some exceptional 4D chess bullshit; it was unfortunately the low hanging fruit. Just ask Elon.
And most importantly you can’t think of the Donold like any other president. He’s definitely not Lyndon Johnson. The proverbial madman theory of Nixon - Donold is actually that; there will be no involvement on the ground, no nation building here nor a coherent campaign; he’s gonna dump his load all over the theater and call it success.
Are we seriously going to pretend that this is some elaborate trap set by Russia and China, instead of just using common sense and realizing that it’s Israel and the neocons back to their old tricks?
I mean there’s being dumb, and then there’s willful ignorance.
Your analysis is comprehensive and interesting, but you’ve left out one crucial element: yes, every war that you list has weakened the United States, but that is not important. They have enriched the people who control the United States. These stateless puppeteers, ironically called the Deep state, don’t win wars, or lose them. They win money, power, and control. Every time.
There is the added benefit to Trump of distracting the electorate from his administration's many failings. "Look this way while I pick your pockets". The nation's finances are in a shambles now, and will be utterly incapable of surviving either a war on Iran or the tax gifts to the wealthy in the Big Fleecing Bill. Why aren't media spelling out the perilous state of America's finances?
First, the U.S. couldn’t afford this war. Second, Trump is a servant to too many masters — stuck trying to please them all and paralyzed by their conflicting interests. I covered this in “Who Owns Donald Trump?”, subtitled “Donald Trump: Puppet of Six Powers.” (https://substack.com/inbox/post/165864362)
Although I fully agree he’ll be tempted, the U.S. won’t engage — for a number of reasons — and will instead let the situation rot to its natural dissolution.
---
The Israeli government’s attack on Iran is so catastrophically irrational that one has to wonder whether Bibi's real motive wasn’t simply to avoid a Knesset vote on dissolving itself.
Moreover, contrary to most reporting on the conflict, a careful review of numerous regional sources suggests things aren’t going particularly well for Israel — and Mr. Trump doesn’t like siding with the losing team.
Once we are bogged down in Iran, we won’t be able to continue to supply Ukraine with the weapons and ammo they need to fend off Russia AND we won’t be able to protect Taiwan for long.
Ukraine will fall to Russia followed quickly by Moldova, and Belarus.
Very well analysed, Zev. As a trap, it is extraordinarily elegant. It's true that China plays the long game. Russia and China are not always totally lined up. Yet they both aim to grow their opportunities, so to speak. And India under Modi is looking for options. Canada will stay out when the USA goes into Iran. It is sad. Persian culture, Iranian people, the very lands will suffer.
"It is sad: Persian culture, Iranian prople, and the very lands will suffer." My empathy here is for all that will be destroyed in Iran, like its ancient Persian and more recent Shia cultural traditions. Iran is a country wherein the British, Russian, and American governments have conspired and interfered to obtain oil wealth for over a century and a half. It is not one of the Sunni Muslim lands. It is Shia. The dominant Sunni powers, e.g. Saudi Arabian Wahhabis, will descend like vultures, too, to try to eliminate Iran's Shia culture. So much militant destruction. So little tolerance.
Why is it sad we are not part of the USA/Israel military actions in Iran?
I think he meant it is sad the USA may actually go into Iran. As Netanyehu is learning, alas at great cost to others, leaders can no longer use warfare as a way to distract the citizenry from failed domestic policy.
Trump and his admin have wrought disaster in the USA. It will be a hard, long and painful journey back to any kind of humane, functioning democracy. They cannot afford a war for many reasons, not least their kneecapped economy...
I served as an army officer in the debacle known as the American war in Vietnam. Unwinnable at so many levels with US ego being the overriding factor. I have been on the ground many times in Lao and Vietnam since the war. So many actions by the US that are morally questionable.
I have also been on the ground in Iran. Given that the US has not won a war in my life time and has learnt absolutely nothing at each outing, there is no doubt in my experience that they will get flogged again.
The US leadership does not have the brains, ability or war machinery that can defeat Iran in Iran. So, yet again they will struggle to even come second.
The U.S. isn’t required to “win” any war….just keep stuffing the pockets of the death merchants and the bankers. I fear we just can’t seem to understand all along who the enemy truly is….it sure isn’t Iran or any other PNAC failed state or European vassal . The enemy all along resides within.
You leave out ample documentation of
Trumps sexual escapades in the Mossad/Epstein files
You’ve seen the files?
Www.non-intervention2.com
Thank you so much for the information. I know I can count on you to bring what others fail to bring to us and show us the truth. And to open our eyes to what is really happening, as frightening as it may be.
You need to have a McDonald's hamburger in the middle of that trap.
Yeah honey is too healthy
Excellent points Zev and nothing I had thought of prior to your post !well done e !
Silly and patronising article. As if the people and governments of the Middle East and Asia lacked autonomy, functioning only as pawns in a Kremlin and Beijing game. The world is much more dynamic and complex than this cookie cutter hypothesis.
Show some respect for cookie cutters!
Trump dropped the 2015 agreement that stopped Iran from even producing nuclear weapons. Now, unsure just how much uranium Iran has in stock, itself a matter forced into being for effectively cancelling the strict auditing process put in place by that same agreement, Netanyahu and Trump feel forced to strike.
This is pure fear, pure negligence, a preemptive attack designed to circumvent a perceived possible threat at sometime in the distant future, and an attack made by paranoid idiots, each struck by unresolved as untreated trauma.
Don’t tell me this is a trap set by China and Russia – alone that sounds idiotic. This is a trap, better known as an own goal, set by America itself – the most egoistic, ambitious, unaware and so dangerous country in the world.
Prove otherwise.
While I can hope that Iran is willing to talk before targeting the US, that may be naive. My other hope is that the US does not try to put boots on the ground in Iran. Iran not only has the most advanced military in the region outside of Israel but is geographically gigantic: mountainous, inhospitable and lacking in infrastructure.
There is a considerable possibility that Iran will seek opportunities to bring the war to American soil here in the West. This would undoubtedly result in harsh countermeasures with great loss of life in Iran but the Islamic leadership may feel they have no choice. If they “only” attack US military outposts in the Middle East (which are startlingly numerous), that might be enough for the Ayatollah to avoid seeming completely cowed while seeking to negotiate through third parties. One can only wonder if Israel believes that the Iranian threat — which goes well beyond the possibility of nuclear weapons — has been sufficiently degraded. Its maximum war approach in Gaza and, increasingly, the West Bank, is worrying in this regard.
Trump a sharp dealer in 2016? He was TACO then. The world needs to shun 47 in everything.
It’s not a bad analysis but it doesn’t account for a few important details : South Korea was an absolute success for American military and nation-building efforts. So were Japan and Western Europe and later Eastern Europe. So the problem is limited to basically Muslim countries.
Secondly, Putin absolutely isn’t ambiguous about extermination of entire command chain of their main ally that were cultivated for 3 decades of heavy investment. We’re watching a civil war inside MAGA and inside the larouchian Democrat wing precisely along the fracture line of loyalty to Moscow narratives : all diet-Nazis are rebelling against Donold who wants to be a real boy for a little bit; while the spineless sycophants who bent along party lines are just fine with it.
Thirdly, you’re overestimating. Yes, KGB had exceptionally patient strategies back in the day. But for last four decades, nepotis and corruption drove absolute majority of Russian recruitment to lucrative executive officer positions. Their failures in Ukraine are abysmal. Their successes undermining American democracy with willing collaborators on the inside are remarkable but aren’t due to some exceptional 4D chess bullshit; it was unfortunately the low hanging fruit. Just ask Elon.
And most importantly you can’t think of the Donold like any other president. He’s definitely not Lyndon Johnson. The proverbial madman theory of Nixon - Donold is actually that; there will be no involvement on the ground, no nation building here nor a coherent campaign; he’s gonna dump his load all over the theater and call it success.
There is no strategy against that, only old age.
Are we seriously going to pretend that this is some elaborate trap set by Russia and China, instead of just using common sense and realizing that it’s Israel and the neocons back to their old tricks?
I mean there’s being dumb, and then there’s willful ignorance.
Your analysis is comprehensive and interesting, but you’ve left out one crucial element: yes, every war that you list has weakened the United States, but that is not important. They have enriched the people who control the United States. These stateless puppeteers, ironically called the Deep state, don’t win wars, or lose them. They win money, power, and control. Every time.
You are a master at this long-game analysis Zev, it’s all pellucidly clear, the most likely future history. Damn them all to Hell here and after here.
There is the added benefit to Trump of distracting the electorate from his administration's many failings. "Look this way while I pick your pockets". The nation's finances are in a shambles now, and will be utterly incapable of surviving either a war on Iran or the tax gifts to the wealthy in the Big Fleecing Bill. Why aren't media spelling out the perilous state of America's finances?
First, the U.S. couldn’t afford this war. Second, Trump is a servant to too many masters — stuck trying to please them all and paralyzed by their conflicting interests. I covered this in “Who Owns Donald Trump?”, subtitled “Donald Trump: Puppet of Six Powers.” (https://substack.com/inbox/post/165864362)
Although I fully agree he’ll be tempted, the U.S. won’t engage — for a number of reasons — and will instead let the situation rot to its natural dissolution.
---
The Israeli government’s attack on Iran is so catastrophically irrational that one has to wonder whether Bibi's real motive wasn’t simply to avoid a Knesset vote on dissolving itself.
(https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-knesset-set-vote-disbanding-first-step-possible-election-2025-06-11/)
Moreover, contrary to most reporting on the conflict, a careful review of numerous regional sources suggests things aren’t going particularly well for Israel — and Mr. Trump doesn’t like siding with the losing team.
Once we are bogged down in Iran, we won’t be able to continue to supply Ukraine with the weapons and ammo they need to fend off Russia AND we won’t be able to protect Taiwan for long.
Ukraine will fall to Russia followed quickly by Moldova, and Belarus.
Taiwan will fall to China.