Are We Reliving 2016 All Over Again?

We are living through an eerie moment right now. It's reminiscent of 2016. Everything seemed to be going according to plan, and Hillary Clinton seemed destined for victory. But in the final days of the election campaign, things started to shift. An exasperated Hillary Clinton declared she had no idea what was happening in the middle of the country.

Now, eight years later, the situation is quite similar. Are we gingerly tiptoeing towards the same abyss? Let's take a look at some of the evidence.

In just weeks, the promising Kamala Harris campaign has seen its lead over Donald Trump erode. The latest swing state polling data shows that the race remains very tight in crucial battleground states. Harris maintains narrow leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If she wins these four states, she would likely secure at least 276 electoral votes. That's enough to win the presidency, but Trump holds slight advantages in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.

If he keeps all of those, he needs one of these Harris states to swing his way, and then he becomes the president. The race is essentially a toss-up, with neither candidate having a decisive lead in the electoral college count.

With just 28 days to go, can we be sure that Kamala Harris will win the presidency? Democrats seem stuck in an old paradigm. They've laid out a very convincing case for Kamala Harris, and they are staying on message. That sounds a lot like what Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

I'm not saying that Kamala Harris is about to lose the elections, but there is something happening under the surface. The Republicans are doing something that is beginning to shift the numbers in the polls. Take, for instance, last Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. Donald Trump and Elon Musk were headlining a rally. During his speech, Trump reeled off the most audacious list of lies about Kamala Harris you've ever heard.

Thanks to Elon Musk, 33 million people watched that livestream on Twitter or X. So, maximum distribution for a massive amount of disinformation. Here's where we get into the Trump strategy and why it's so effective: even if the vast majority of voters, let's say 97 percent of voters in Pennsylvania, realize that Trump is lying about Kamala Harris, that still leaves 3 percent that may find him believable.

If 3 percent of swing state Republicans believe just one of those lies, it could shift the result in Trump's favor. If they believe more than one of those lies, it could really be decisive. It could be a landslide, really, if you think about it.